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2020-01-10 21:19   来源:  www.cangzhoujiaoyu.cn   评论:0 点击:



Ever since Donald Trump's \"unexpected \"election as US president, America's rivalry with Iran on the Middle East stage has been good. But as the plot progresses to 2019, many spectators may get tired of the fact that america and iraq have always been \"just talking and not practicing\" and that whatever happens will eventually end up dead.


U.S. forces launched airstrikes near Iraqi airport in Baghdad in the early hours of January 3, killing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps \"Al-Quds Brigade\" commander Qassim Sulaimani and Iraqi Shiite militia group \"People's Mobilization\" deputy commander Abu Mehdi Mohamedis.


In November 2017, the United States fully reinstated harsh sanctions against Iran, especially on the oil trade and financial sector. The sanctions have done obvious damage to Iran's economy, and for more than a year Iran and the United States and their regional allies have fought.


This year, iran has been suspended in four stages to implement some of the terms of the iranian nuclear agreement, oil tankers across the strait of hormuz have been damaged, british oil tankers have been seized, saudi airports have been attacked, oil fields have been blown down, u.s. global hawks have been shot down by iran, and iranian oil tankers have been hit by unknown rockets on the red sea.


Whenever the U.S. and its allies have suffered, the U.S. will accuse Iran of being a behind-the-scenes murderer, while Iran will follow the \"convention\" and deny it. In June, the U.S. Global Hawk drone was shot down in Iranian airspace and, according to Trump, the U.S. military decided at one point to carry out a military strike against targets inside Iran, but he finally held back. In october, iranian oil tankers on their way to the red sea were hit by rockets and their ships sailed back to iran, which claimed to have \"severely punished the killer\" but not the following.


The interaction between the United States and Iraq,\" tacit understanding \"obvious,\" red line\" clear: friction does not cross fire, confrontation does not conflict, avoid causing casualties, resulting in the situation out of control risk. And the two sides are not \"overreaching\" on iran's own soil, which, while suspending some of the terms of its nuclear agreement, has not touched on the 20% abundance of enriched uranium involving weapons-grade nuclear technology and has reaffirmed its no intention of developing nuclear weapons.


Killing Sulaimani, the United States crossed the red line and broke the tacit understanding. And the U.S. Department of Defense has publicly and high-profilely declared that the military operation was ordered by President Trump himself and carried out directly by the U.S. military.


This time, the u. s.military not only bloodshed iran, but also directly \"decapitate\" senior iranian generals. Iran's supreme leader, ayatollah ali khamenei, has vowed revenge, and mr kani, his successor, has even threatened to keep americans \"dead\" in the middle east.


Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has declared three days of national mourning. Commercial ads on billboards in the capital, Tehran, were replaced with a memorial poster from Sulaimani. Anti-American, anti-Israel demonstrations broke out across the country, and some of the demonstrators even wept with excitement and shouted that they were ready to meet.



Lu jin, an expert on iran at the chinese academy of social sciences, said mr. sulaimani was a \"national hero and anti-terrorist fighter\" in the hearts of iranians. He led the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps \"Al-Quds Brigade \", the elite of the Iranian armed forces. He is also very good in the eyes of the masses. \"Take the mass line \", approachable, simple life, even ordinary people on the bus also met him. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is very important in Iranian politics, but Mr. Suleimani has strictly observed that the military should be politically neutral and not interfere in political affairs. In short, he is highly respected and loved by the Iranian people.


But outside iran, mr. sulemani is a ruthless player. Although the Iranian government has always claimed to have offered \"military advisers\" and \"assistance\" to Iraq at the invitation of the Syrian government, it is clear to some people who know the situation that Mr. Suleimani and the Al-Quds Brigade under his leadership have played a crucial role in the arduous fight against the extremist group Islamic State, which has kept terrorism out of the country.


But Sulaimani's importance to Iran's national security goes far beyond his military prowess on the anti-terrorist scene. With the advance of the war on terror, shia militias have quickly grown in iraq, syria and other countries, and have been iran's \"integration \", a stretch of iran from northern iraq to syria, lebanon and palestinians, directly to israel's door, as the\" shia arc \"of iran's sphere of influence gradually woven. In this vast territory, the followers of Shia Islam have been effectively organized, effectively becoming a \"strategic depth \"to safeguard Iran's national security, which, while not offsetting the overwhelming military advantage that the United States and its allies, especially Israel, have had over Iran over information-based combat capabilities, is a challenge and a threat.


It has been more than a year since the United States fully renewed the harsh sanctions on Iran, and although the Iranian economy has been hit hard, the value of the currency has halved and domestic prices have doubled, the sanctions have actually been less effective than expected.


“The Shi'ite arc has played a crucial role in the anti-US sanctions process. The US shut down the SWIFT system on Iran, cut off financial ties with Iranian banks, sanctioned Iranian oil exports and shipping, and the "Shia arc "can help Iran to "smuggling "and "money-laundering,"although the cost is higher than normal trade and trading volume is substantially reduced, it is ultimately a umbilical cord for blood transfusions to Iran in difficult times, and the network of US sanctions against Iran is leaking.


Along with mr. sulemani, he was killed by muhandis, deputy commander of iraq's shia militia, the people's mobilization group. America's round of action is clear: weaken shia militias, undermine shia's arc, and close loopholes in sanctions against iraq. Sulaimani and Muhandis are central figures in Shia groups.


U.S. forces may continue to carry out military strikes against Shiite militias in Iraq, and even in Syria, and against Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel outside the country, but the \"Shi'ite arc\" cannot be destroyed solely by existing forces and air strikes. Shi'ite religious systems are the key to organizational capacity and are hardly easily eliminated by physical means such as military strikes.


If America brings nothing but bullets and flames of war, rather than peace and stability and happiness and prosperity, will it reap the blood and hatred of the Shi'ite people, or will it return to conformity and approval?


For some time in iran, the iranians are truly a nation of pride and pride, and in many cases even pride and self-distrust. As a senior commander of the armed forces of one of iran's sovereign states, mr. sulemani's death from the u. s.military has been disastrous, the iranian national ire can be expected.


This is not the case for Iran today. Iran's economy is only 2% of the U.S. economy, not even eligible for the G20 summit, military spending is roughly the equivalent of US% to 2%, and overall equipment is more than 40 years behind the U.S. Since the islamist revolution, none of iran's generals has had the experience of directing a mechanized regiment, including mr. sulemani, who is already the most experienced general in the iranian army.


If iran retaliates and causes american casualties, it will provoke american counter-attacks. In the u. s. presidential election year, the diplomatic space for allowing mr. trump to compromise is limited, and the vicious circle of \"retribution\" can easily get out of control.


In the event of a full-scale military conflict between the two countries and a high-tech war under the condition of information technology, in the face of a large-scale,\" sea, sea and air power \"five-in-one, coordinated combat of the United States forces, the organized military resistance of the Iranian state was completely destroyed without any human will as a transfer. The biggest obstacle to America's military campaign against Iraq is the incalculable cost of war.


If the leaders on both sides are rational enough, no military adventure should continue. For Iran, in particular, the main task today is not to \"revenge,\"but to focus on domestic issues, to advance the national economy and national defence, to improve people's lives, and to ensure that Iran's national security becomes more secure as long as the country remains stable and no longer suffers from last November's chaos.


The US and Iraq ' s restraint, forbearance, and tacit understanding have been erased by Trump ' s military order to kill Sulaimani, and the future interaction between the two sides is full of uncertainty, and any unexpected spark could once again detonate a powder keg in the Middle East. Historically, the outbreak of war was mostly full of surprises.